Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he would later replace.
The Shift of Stance & Closed Issues
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
David Lammy has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It includes only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter and The Ghost of 2018
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Danger and A Wise Reminder
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to remember the impact just a few words had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
