Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
